One. Changes in market supply and demand

Due to the weak market, some western aluminum smelters have to be forced to close down. However, due to the rebalancing of the global supply chain, the demand and prices of bauxite and alumina in the market have continued to rise. The main reason for the increase is the demand from China, although the performance of other countries and regions in the world is mediocre or even declining.

According to Joan Mottsol, research director of the price and purchasing department of HIS Inc, one of the factors in the supply side, especially China, is that Indonesia has banned the export of raw ore since the beginning of this year, so as to encourage more aluminum smelters in Indonesia. Investment in the construction of factories will definitely affect the bauxite market that is more scarce than those of nickel, tin and copper. At the same time, Ocarol, a senior analyst at Lloyd’s North Coast research in Cleveland in the United States, also pointed out that Rio Tinto’s Govo alumina smelter in northern Australia will also be closed this year. This has further led to a shortage of alumina supply, especially in markets outside of China. But he added that the bauxite from Govo will likely be actively sold to Chinese smelters, which will relieve some pressure on the bauxite market at least in the near future.

According to the British "Metal Herald Research" aluminum research analyst Yang Cao believes that even if the global demand for alumina increased in 2013, it showed that the growth rate mainly came from China as high as 14.6%, and Africa increased by about 10%. And the Middle East and North America also grew by 5.2% and 1.8%, respectively. In contrast, Latin America's alumina demand fell by 7% last year, which also led to a sharp drop in Brazilian alumina production. In addition to Asian regions except China, alumina consumption in Central and Eastern Europe and Australia both fell by more than 5%, mainly due to the closure of some aluminum smelters in these regions.

But Yang Cao predicts that in 2014 China and other countries and regions in the world will increase alumina demand by 7.7% and 3.3% respectively. The main reason for the weaker growth in the rest of the world was dragged down by the decline in North America and Central and Eastern Europe, as Alcoa and UC Rusal continued to cut production capacity. However, despite the decline in alumina demand in the above-mentioned regions, it still cannot offset the growth momentum of India and Saudi Arabia in addition to China's growth.

Two. The Middle East market is eager for alumina

According to Rio Tinto Alcan’s chief commercial officer, Geweis Jacques, with the completion and commissioning of a number of new aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, it is particularly noteworthy that Alcan’s joint venture Maeden United When completed and put into production, raw materials such as alumina and bauxite will become a net shortage market. It is understood that some plans not only increase India's smelting capacity, but also increase the development of alumina and bauxite production capacity here. Even so, the alumina and bauxite market in the Middle East has been in short supply for a long time. According to Ocarol, the main reason is the lack of cheap power supply to support smelter production in India. Moreover, the country's domestic political turmoil often encounters trouble in its operations.

However, despite the continuous growth of global alumina production in recent years, the market still tends to be in excess of supply and demand. And it is predicted that the surplus will continue in the next three years. O Carroll estimates that as the decline in aluminum production exceeds the control of alumina production capacity, this year's surplus will be roughly maintained at about 2.7 million tons last year. In fact, the alumina market may still be or tend to be surplus in the future. However, it is not ruled out that until sufficient alumina production capacity reaches a level that matches the primary aluminum production rate reasonably, it is possible to balance the supply and demand of the alumina market.

O Carroll pointed out that before that, he had predicted that the world alumina supply and demand market would show a deficit of 400,000 tons in 2014.

But some factors made him re-evaluate the forecast, not only is the growth of aluminum production lower than originally expected, but also that more than expected production capacity is controlled. Moreover, as China continues to import bauxite to smelt alumina in the country, the self-sufficiency rate of alumina continues to increase. In addition, another reason for the surplus of the alumina market is that many large mining companies believe that the greatest value of the aluminum industry is the upstream products, namely alumina and bauxite. So they pay more attention to centralized production, and do not need to refining and smelting. Even from 2012 to 2015, the global aluminum smelting capacity increased by 28%, of which nearly general growth came from China. But aluminum producers generally have low financial benefits. Among them, more than 40% of the industry's production is currently facing a loss, even at the price of $1,800 per ton of aluminum.

Moreover, in the first half of this year, the price once fell to a level of only about 1,700 US dollars, and hit a new low in the past four years. Moreover, at these price levels, even some Chinese aluminum producers have to shut down some of the older and higher-cost equipment.

It is understood that Ormet, a US aluminum producer, recently filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and is currently looking forward to selling its Hannibal and Ohio smelters. At the same time, Chicago-based Century Aluminum will also suspend its Sebly and Kentucky smelters. The equipment is purchased from Rio Tinto Alcan, unless the company can obtain a power supply agreement from the Kentucky Public Service Commission. Make the company survive in the world market for a long time in the future.

three. More smelting equipment will be closed

Some smelters in other countries and regions of the world may also be closed. This includes some coastal and central regions of China. The central government hopes to stimulate the national economy to shift from a traditional export-based economy to a focus on strengthening domestic demand. Ocarol said that this is traditional wisdom, and European smelters are also at risk due to higher power consumption. At least in the near term, given the strange characteristics of electricity prices, wind power has been artificially strengthened in Western Europe and the European Union.

Moreover, in Brazil and Australia, the high cost also led to the risk of aluminum smelters being shut down. In fact, Alcoa recently announced that it will permanently close its Point Henry aluminum smelter in Victoria, Australia.